Kadyrov, Moscow’s man

CAN Russia succeed politically where it has failed militarily? According to Russia’s top general in Chechnya, the war is over, most soldiers can go home, and nothing remains but mopping-up operations. Russia says it has killed up to 20,000 rebels and destroyed their command centres, arms dumps and supply lines.

Yet the Chechen guerrillas, still numbering up to 3,500 according to official Russian estimates, refuse to disappear. Although hugely outgunned and outnumbered on paper, they still seem able to evade the Russian checkpoints and the nervous, underpaid, ill-trained and badly equipped soldiers who man them. Many Chechen men move back and forth between a stint as a fighter and a rest in the ruins and refugee camps that most now call home. The half-dozen main rebel commanders, including the Chechen president, Aslan Maskhadov, are still at large. It is quite possible that they will launch a spectacular counter-attack.

But the shooting has slackened recently. June 25th was the first day this year that Russia announced no fatal casualties. Chechen tactics now concentrate on sniper attacks, land mines, booby traps and remote-controlled bombs. These kill around a dozen Russian soldiers every week, which is not enough to impress Russian public opinion. Broadly speaking, most Russians still support the war. Despite persistent reports of atrocities, western criticism has proved largely toothless. In fact, Russia has done better in the information war than the real one.

Since taking office, however, Mr Kadyrov has had little to boast of. Pro-Moscow Chechens complained furiously about his past support for separatism. His inauguration was a shambles. He is to be shadowed by a Russian-appointed viceroy and has little control over the armed forces. Not surprisingly, Chechen militants regard him as a Quisling. On June 16th they assassinated one of his close allies, another Muslim cleric called Imam Umar Idritov. Russia’s state-owned news agency, ITAR-TASS, perhaps mischievously, reported that the rebel Chechen leadership has put a $250,000 bounty on Mr Kadyrov’s head, with a Mercedes jeep thrown in.

Mr Kadyrov’s strongest card is growing Chechen weariness with the war. He says that some rebel commanders are already negotiating a surrender in return for an amnesty. But that would still leave both Mr Maskhadov and the hardline Islamists. Guerrilla wars the world over tend to end with a deal not just with moderates but with extremists too. Chechnya’s is unlikely to be an exception. Any deal struck by Mr Kadyrov would also need to satisfy Russia. For all the rumours, any deal looks a long way off.

Russia is again growling at Georgia, complaining about its porous border with Chechnya and the activities of the Chechen “embassy” in the Georgian capital, Tbilisi. Both protests ring a bit hollow. International monitors on the border do not support the Kremlin’s claims that numerous Chechen fighters are lurking there—and any leaks, it might be argued, are just as much Russia’s fault as Georgia’s. It is hard to see what can stop Hizir Aldamov, a local citizen who represents Mr Maskhadov in Tbilisi, from calling himself an ambassador, issuing press releases and helping refugees. The Kremlin’s spokesman, Sergei Yastrzhembsky, is unimpressed. “They say they’re a friendly country. If they can’t find the necessary law, that’s their problem.” Once again, Russia’s way of making friends and influencing people is making its neighbours nervous.